MID 64

Chapter 64

(Loss: 240,000 yen)

I lost badly in margin trading.

I learned that it is dangerous to blindly believe other people’s careless talk.

This year is a year for studying.

In the end, I understood that anything other than long-term investment trusts is dangerous.

I should also stop watching too much YouTube.

It only makes my feelings waver.

I will leave the semiconductor investment trust as it is, even if it is stuck.

My Matsui Securities account will remain negative and untouched.

It seems better not to make any more trades this year.

This year’s painful tuition fee is 200,000 yen.

At work, I thought about future scenarios, but it looks like the worst pattern may happen.

In the end, I only think about interpretations that are convenient for me.

From next year, I will not touch anything except long-term installment investments.

It may be better to dispose of the investment trusts I bought this year before the end of the year.

I will put everything into NISA and stop dreaming.

I have already saved enough money for retirement, and I will receive a decent pension.

This money is something I will leave to Ayumu, so I should stop throwing it in recklessly.

Scenario A

SOX and Nikkei both rise until September SQ, then adjust at the end of September.

On 8/28, Nvidia reports strong earnings and surges. If it goes above $150, take profit.
→ Settle only the global semiconductor holdings and wait for the adjustment phase within the year.
→ Do not buy more. Accept that “this time was a success.”
Nikkei Average rises until 9/13 SQ and take profit at 40,000 yen.
→ Switch to short-term trading and wait for adjustment.
Gradually buy more Nikkei Bear above 40,000 yen.
→ Switch to short-term trading and wait for adjustment.

Scenario B

SOX rises until early September. Nikkei fluctuates wildly and crashes at the end of September.

On 8/28, Nvidia reports strong earnings and surges. If it goes above $150, take profit.
→ Settle only global semiconductors and wait for adjustment.
Nikkei does not rise until 9/13 SQ and crashes to 36,000 yen.
→ Settle all margin positions. (Keep Rakuten spot holdings and Nikkei Bull.)
From 36,000 yen, dispose of Nikkei Bear.
→ Gradually buy more Nikkei Bull.

Scenario C

SOX and Nikkei fluctuate wildly and crash at the end of September.

On 8/28, Nvidia misses earnings and crashes.
→ Switch to long-term investment and leave it frozen.
→ Gradually buy more SOX.
Nikkei does not rise until 9/13 SQ and crashes to 36,000 yen.
→ Settle all margin positions. (Keep Rakuten spot and Nikkei Bull.)
From 36,000 yen, dispose of Nikkei Bear.
→ Gradually buy more Nikkei Bull.

Scenario D

SOX and Nikkei fluctuate wildly and crash at the end of September.

On 8/28, Nvidia misses earnings and crashes.
→ Switch to long-term investment and leave it frozen.
→ Gradually buy more SOX.
Nikkei does not rise until 9/13 SQ and crashes to 36,000 yen.
→ Settle all margin positions. (Keep Rakuten spot and Nikkei Bull.)
From 36,000 yen, dispose of Nikkei Bear.
→ Gradually buy more Nikkei Bull.
→ If it crashes further and falls below 30,000 yen, still continue buying Nikkei Bull.

In any scenario from A to D, keep 1,000,000 yen in cash.

This is to buy back or buy more gradually during adjustment or crash phases.This year, I will accept it as “studying while test-driving” and not pursue profit.

The margin positions I entered this time will all be settled on September SQ day.

Win or lose, I will not touch individual stocks unless the market is extremely clear.

I will not carry over margin trades.

I will not do short selling.

For individual stocks, the basic policy is short-term trading.

→ No unknown stocks.
→ Day trading or short swing only.

Japanese stocks will rise, but never forget that in the end, it depends on America.

→ PER 16 times is the guideline.
→ Buy at 15 times, sell at 17 times.

Whether the market rises or crashes, the stance is: long-term NISA and short-term taxable account.

→ Cut losses on the same day if buying fails.
→ Bear ETFs are only mental insurance.